Tuesday, March 10, 2020

Fear! - What's Missing In U.S. Coronavirus Statistics

LABELLE, FL. -- Fear and resulting anxiety is upon the nation and world as COVID-19 infections grow at exponential rates daily.

As of today nearly 117,000 confirmed worldwide with the virus with wildly varying rates among the 117 countries and regions affected. It's no wonder that fear is growing as individuals and families try to guess what will be the news tomorrow in their state or country.

A look at supposed "rates" of infection per thousand people will show why some of the confusion and anxiety is understandable.

CountryPopulationConfirmed Cases
1 in X Infected
China1,300,000,00080,75616,098
U.S.329,000,000756435,185
Japan127,000,000530239,623
Germany82,000,0001,15171,242
Iran81,000,0008,04210,072
France66,000,0001,41246,742
United Kingdom67,800,000321211,215
Italy60,500,0009,1726,596
South Korea51,300,0007,5136,828
Spain45,000,0001,54729,089
Netherlands17,100,00038244,764
Israel8,600,00058148,276
Switzerland8,000,00037421,390
Florida, USA21,000,000181,166,667
Wuhan, China1,000,00067,74315
Ohio, USA12,000,00034,000,000
World 3/10/207,500,000,000116,55864,346

The worst case scenario seems to be Wuhan, in central China where 1 in 15 people were confirmed with the virus. At the top of the chart, Mainland China had 1 in 16,908 infected. 

On the other hand the least likely place to be infected, at least with today's statistics seems to be the U.S. where about 756 people out of a population of 329 million have it so far, or 1 in 435,185 people.

But here lies the public health problem and transparency lack. Testing is lacking in the U.S. and other countries. The United States so far has only tested about 1,707 people or about 5 tests per million people, that is, 1 test for every 200,000 people due to the lack of tests and the onerous requirement that a doctor has to order a test. You can't just drop in to the health department and get tested or even demand a test from a doctor.

On the other hand in Guandong, China about 320,000 tests have been given or 3,692 per million people, that is, 3.7 tests for every 1,000 people. Quite a difference is testing rates compared to the U.S.

Japan, the U.K., and Israel also have a similar statistics problem, misleading from the extremely low rates of testing, just like the U.S., and show very low rates or infection. 

Conversely, South Korea might have what might be more realistic rates of infection, having tested 3.7 people per 1,000 of it's population. Even though Italy has not matched that rate of testing yet, they have reached a rate of about .8 per thousand, that, is 826 test per million people.

For further examples of how nations have fallen behind in testing their citizens see this chart published by Dr. David Agus, one of the world's leading doctors and pioneering biomedical researchers, and consultant for CBS news.

No comments:

Post a Comment