Speculating On Testing - Where Are COVID-19 Hot Spots?

LABELLE, FL. -- As the coronavirus continues climbing in numbers worldwide it may be interesting to speculate where hot spots are being found and what areas are doing sufficient testing to locate those place where high numbers of individuals are infected.

Below is a map of selected countries, U.S. states, and one U.S. county (Broward, FL.) showing population, numbers of cases as reported by respective health or government authorities, and the product of dividing the population number by the number of cases which then indicates an approximation of the odds of getting COVID-19.

The odds of infection depend on what proportion of the population has been tested, which is not entirely known for all areas, but generally if may be speculated when the odds of infection are below say 1 in 6,000 or so, it might be inferred that sufficient testing has been done.

Currently the U.S. states of California, New York, Connecticut, and Illinois are under orders to residents to stay home except for those doing essential work. It is allowed at this time to go outside to shop or exercise in most of those areas.

Notice the variations in "odds of infection" as New York state has the apparent most likely place to become infection at 1 in 2,387 while California is 1 in 31,676 and seemingly less likely, but the numbers for the odds depend on the proportions of the population having been tested to find the confirmed cases; the less testing the less dangerous the area appears, but in actuality may not be safer.

And likewise notice the world's most likely place to have been affected - Wuhan, China with "odds" of 1 in 870 people while Japan shows 1 in 134,677 which one might speculate indicates Japan has not done sufficient testing.

How much risk are you taking?

In a comparison of risk, you have a 1 in 3,000 chance of being struck by lightning in your lifetime. The odds of getting hit by a meteorite are 1 in 3000 according to NASA. Other comparisons of risk are 1 in 10,000 in the U.S. die from suicide and 1 in 10,000 die by gunshot each year in the U.S. 1 in 10,000 die in auto accidents each year in the U.S. You have a 1 in 10,000 chance of finding a four-leaf clover. More frequent risks include a home fire, about 1 in 1,000 yearly and being injured by falling furniture, also about 1 in 1,000 yearly The odds of being born on February 29 is 1 in 1,461. About 1 in 11 Americans get the flu each year.

Country	Population	Confirmed Cases	1 Infection per x persons (row B/C=D)
China	1,300,000,000	81,250	16,000
U.S.	329,000,000	16,638	19,774
Japan	127,000,000	943	134,677
Germany	82,000,000	19,848	4,131
Iran	81,000,000	18,407	4,400
United Kingdom	67,800,000	3,297	20,564
France	66,000,000	10,891	6,060
Italy	60,550,000	47,021	1,288
South Korea	51,300,000	8,652	5,929
Spain	46,750,000	25,571	1,828
Canada	37,500,000	1,085	34,562
Taiwan	23,000,000	153	150,327
Netherlands	17,100,000	3,003	5,694
Belgium	11,400,000	2,257	5,051
Sweden	10,100,000	1,639	6,162
Israel	8,600,000	705	12,199
Switzerland	8,579,000	5,544	1,547
Denmark	5,792,000	1,337	4,332
Norway	5,368,000	1,959	2,740
California USA	39,500,000	1,247	31,676
Florida, USA	21,000,000	563	37,300
New York USA	20,060,000	8,403	2,387
Illinois	12,700,000	552	23,007
Ohio, USA	11,700,000	174	67,241
Washington USA	7,800,000	1,524	5,118
Massachusetts	6,900,000	413	16,707
Colorado	5,600,000	363	15,427
Connecticut US	3,560,000	194	18,351
Broward County, FL	1,950,000	128	15,234
Hubei Province, China	59,000,000	67,790	870
World	7,500,000,000	275,469	27,226