Monday, October 29, 2012

New Yorkers Ignoring Evacuation Warnings?

Fact Checking Hurricane Sandy

Subways and trains are not running, but low lying areas of New York still have businesses open and people still there, despite mandatory evacuation orders from city officials.

One of largest storms to hit the east coast is being described as "huge" and "messy." News broadcasters say the 1000 miles wide "big as Texas" huge storm is expected to slow down, creating opportunity of more damage and creating widespread power outages.

Up to a foot of rain. six to eight foot tides above normal. Up to 11 foot storm surge in Connecticut.

The National Hurricane Center says the odds of hurricane force winds of 74 mph are highest for Delaware but at only 40 percent. But, it's 90-100 percent chance of 50 mph winds hitting from northern Virginia to Connecticut. (See NHC map above).

Ocean City, Maryland has the highest probability of 34 knot winds today, figured by the NHC at 77 per cent chance. Areas north and and south get much lower probabilities. (see NHC discussion of wind probabilities) New York City has a 55 per cent chance of 34 knot winds today and Newark, NJ, 46 per cent.

The chances for a 2 foot storm surge is also 90-100% for the Virginia to Connecticut coast, says the NHC but a 80-90% chance of a 4 foot surge from New Jersey to New York City and 50-60% chance of a 6 foot surge.

Sandy is being compared to the "perfect" storm of 1991 when a tropical storm ran into a winter storm, and news outlets are calling Sandy the Super Storm or Frankenstorm.

Sandy will quickly be down graded to a tropical storm as it hits a blocking system that will stall the storm and then move it off to the north.

National Hurricane Center Graphics Page

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