Saturday, August 25, 2012

Hurricane Chance Less Than 10% In Gulf



Tropical Storm Moves Into Gulf Of Mexico

LABELLE, FL. --  The National Hurricane Center says the odds of Tropical Storm Isaac hitting the Florida west coast and the Florida Keys as a hurricane are from 5 to 10%. As the storm passed more westerly through the Caribbean, the track show a less than 10 percent probability of hurricane force winds.

The highest winds of the storm are tracking toward the Gulf of Mexico and winds may affect the Keys with the highest winds, and less so along the west coast of Florida and higher winds later in the Panhandle.

The graphics above show probabilities of sustained (1-minute average) surface wind speeds equal to or exceeding 64 kt...74 mph (hurricane force) out in the Gulf of Mexico through the weekend and beginning of next week.

These wind speed probability graphics are based on the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, and on NHC forecast error statistics for those forecast variables during recent years.

Also see: NHC Storm Surge Chart - parts of SW Florida have a 50-70% chance of 2 feet above normal

(Click on graphic for larger image)

Update: THE GLADES COUNTY BOARD OF COUNTY COMMISSIONERS WILL HAVE AN EMERGENCY MEETING AT 4:30 SATURDAY IN THE GLADES COUNTY COURTHOUSE TO SIGN A LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY.


Hendry County government continues to monitor Tropical Storm Isaac. All residents are encouraged to be monitoring the media and to make appropriate plans. There is currently no evacuation notice in effect for Hendry County. Sand for sand bags is available at the Rodeo Arena in LaBelle at 100 Rodeo Drive.

A decision regarding schools closing or being open on Monday will be made as conditions change. Hendry County Emergency Management urges all county residents to use caution and follow your emergency plan.

1 comment:

  1. Anonymous9:37 AM

    I think it is important to understand that this NWS product predicts the probability of hurricane force winds being felt at any one point. The probability of hurricane force winds at some point along the coast is much higher. This story as written is very misleading, and could lead some to be complacent about the danger of this storm. In addition, we need to remember that wind is not the only, or even the greatest danger of a hurricane, as coastal and inland flooding often cause more damage than high winds.

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