Monday, August 27, 2012

Isaac Still Not A Hurricane Until New Orleans?

Tropical Storm On Track For Gulf States

LABELLE, FL. --  The National Hurricane Center says the odds of Tropical Storm Isaac hitting the Gulf States of Louisiana and Mississippi as a hurricane are from 5% to 40%.

In the middle of the Gulf of Mexico this morning, the storm is bringing only rain bands over land and the possibility of higher seas. Once well into the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, winds may pick up, with a chance of hitting hurricane force midway into the Gulf waters and up to the Gulf coast states.

Meanwhile, most news media have been reporting the "worst" case scenarios for the last week, reporting much higher winds than actually have occurred so far. Recommendation: Go directly to the National Hurricane Center for accurate forecasts and probabilities of wind speeds, times, and locations.

The National Hurricane Center graphics above show probabilities of sustained (1-minute average) surface wind speeds equal to or exceeding 64 kt...74 mph (hurricane force) out in the Gulf of Mexico through the weekend and beginning of next week.

These wind speed probability graphics are based on the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, and on NHC forecast error statistics for those forecast variables during recent years.

Also see: NHC Storm Surge Chart - above normal water levels can be expected along parts of the coastline as southerly winds pushes water into bays.

(Click on above graphic for larger image)

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